Greg Speed in HuffPost: What Nate Silver’s Analysis Misses About 2016

Check out AV President Greg Speed on the Huffington Post for his latest column, “What Nate Silver’s Analysis Misses About 2016.” In the piece, Greg discusses his take on the electoral landscape and progressives advantages going into 2016:


Progressives should feel confident entering the 2016 election. If we engage and maintain strong support among minority, youth and women voters, America’s changing demographics are creating a structural advantage for us in the presidential electorate and Electoral College. The next 18 months will feel like a rollercoaster ride, but we are poised for success from the White House down to state houses – so long as we focus on the fundamentals and play to our strengths.

Some observers have claimed there is “Blue Wall” virtually sealing the Electoral College for the Democratic candidate… Silver explains that this theory of an impenetrable “Blue Wall” could crumble every bit as quickly as the supposed “Red Wall” prior to the 1992 election, and maintains that the Electoral College itself was a small factor in recent Democratic victories.

Silver is right that Democrats by no means have the Electoral College in the bag. And let’s be clear: this will be a hard-fought and likely close election. Either side is capable of winning the presidency.

However, the Blue Wall debate misses the important reality that there is a Blue Tilt – not a lock – in the Electoral College. And it’s tied to ongoing trends in critical swing states that can’t be fully understood just by looking at past elections alone.


Read the full piece on the Huffington Post

Greg Speed in HuffPost: Six Years To Win Back The States

Check out Greg Speed’s latest Huffington Post piece on winning back the states from the ground up.

When partisan dominance can defy the popular vote and lock down years of control, it’s clear this is no longer just a problem for progressives — it’s a problem for our democracy as a whole. How do progressives begin to turn the tables in this climate?

Progressives’ best chance to break through the conservative firewall is a multi-front, long-term strategy to win back the states. Too often we’ve measured our electoral success based on winning states for the presidency or control of the U.S. Senate, while overlooking vital the contests further down the ballot. Those days are gone — we can no longer afford to settle for lonely victories at the top of the ticket. We must fight back against conservatives’ ground-up strategy with a ground-up strategy of our own.

America Votes and hundreds of our progressive allies are developing [ ] six-year plans within and across states. Our goal is to identify critical opportunities to build back power in the states each year from 2015 through 2020. America Votes will help make hard-nosed assessments about trends on the ground and critical decisions on the best opportunities for us to make progress on our overall goals.

Click here to read the full blog post on the Huffington Post.

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