Check out AV President Greg Speed on the Huffington Post for his latest column, “What Nate Silver’s Analysis Misses About 2016.” In the piece, Greg discusses his take on the electoral landscape and progressives advantages going into 2016:
Progressives should feel confident entering the 2016 election. If we engage and maintain strong support among minority, youth and women voters, America’s changing demographics are creating a structural advantage for us in the presidential electorate and Electoral College. The next 18 months will feel like a rollercoaster ride, but we are poised for success from the White House down to state houses – so long as we focus on the fundamentals and play to our strengths.
Some observers have claimed there is “Blue Wall” virtually sealing the Electoral College for the Democratic candidate… Silver explains that this theory of an impenetrable “Blue Wall” could crumble every bit as quickly as the supposed “Red Wall” prior to the 1992 election, and maintains that the Electoral College itself was a small factor in recent Democratic victories.
Silver is right that Democrats by no means have the Electoral College in the bag. And let’s be clear: this will be a hard-fought and likely close election. Either side is capable of winning the presidency.
However, the Blue Wall debate misses the important reality that there is a Blue Tilt – not a lock – in the Electoral College. And it’s tied to ongoing trends in critical swing states that can’t be fully understood just by looking at past elections alone.